Ballon d'Or: Should Lamine Yamal Win It?

We live in a world where a 17-year-old is in the Ballon d’Or race—and somehow, that doesn’t even feel like a surprise. Lamine Yamal has had an undeniably extraordinary 2024/25 season, racking up 39 goal contributions in the process (18 goals and 21 assists). More than just the stats, though, it’s been a joy to watch him play. As we saw during Barça’s atrocious run of form in December while Yamal was out injured, his presence is absolutely vital to the team’s success moving forward into the 2025/26 season. Consequently, he has also become the one of the front-runner's for the Ballon d'Or according to Sqwaka, with 11/4 odds of winning the award in September of this year. However, many pundits and football fans may argue that there are several competitors who deserve the award over the 17-year-old Spanish winger. Today, I want to share my opinion on who I think is most likely to win this prestigious award.

Competitor 1: Raphael Dias Belloli (Raphinha)

First up on our list of contenders is none other than our very own Raphinha. Let's be honest, as Barça fans, not even the most optimistic of us could have predicted what Raphinha would produce this season. Following a summer during which it was rumored Raphinha would leave the club following Barça's clear interest in signing winger Nico Williams, the Brazilian forward has produced an astonishing 56 goal contributions, with 34 goals and 22 assists. Yet, even these unbelievable numbers do not tell the whole story. What truly sets Raphinha's campaign apart was his consistent ability to deliver for Barça in the biggest moments. Nowhere is this more evident than in Barça's 4 El Clásico's this season, in which Raphinha managed 5 goals.

Moving on, the question you're probably asking is: how does Raphinha stack up against Lamine Yamal? Well, in my opinion, Raphinha has a very strong case for the 2025 Ballon d'Or. That said, I personally agree with the betting odds: Yamal should have the edge. Throughout most Barça games last season, it was apparent that Lamine Yamal played a more pivotal role in the threat Barça posed when moving forward. Despite Raphinha having one more assist, Yamal has created high xG chances on a more consistent basis, posed a significantly larger threat in 1v1 situations (evidenced by his 150+ successful dribbles this season), and has also used his exceptional vision to give various line-breaking passes: such as his trivela cross to Raphinha vs. Madrid.

Moreover, though it may feel harsh to some, Raphinha's slight dip in form toward the end of the season, especially after a disastrous international break with Brazil, will likely tip the scales in Lamine's favor when the votes are counted.

Competitor 2: Ousmane Dembélé

After a lackluster first season in Paris, I don't think anyone expected what we have seen from Dembélé this season. While I admit I am not his biggest fan, I must concede that since the beginning of the calendar year, his numbers have been truly exceptional. In his new-found central role for this exciting PSG side (in the absence of Kylian Mbappé), he has produced 33 goals and 13 assists this season. The Frenchman has also been essential to PSG's success in the Champions League, netting in both the Round of 16 and Semi-Final to help PSG progress to the final where they humiliated Inter Milan (with Dembélé providing 2 assists).

So, how does he compare to Yamal? Statistically, they are very similar: 39 goal contributions for Yamal and 46 goal contributions for Dembélé (all competitions). However, since moving centrally, we've seen fewer instances of on-the-ball brilliance and explosive play from the former Barcelona winger, with much of that creative responsibility moving to Désiré Doué on the wing. Nevertheless, Dembélé’s exceptional output and his Champions League triumph — paired with Yamal’s defeat in the Nations League final — will, unfortunately, almost certainly result in Ousmane Dembélé winning the Ballon d’Or ahead of Lamine Yamal for the 2024/25 season.

Other Competitors

While there are other notable contenders such as Pedri, Vitinha, and Mohamed Salah, the current betting odds suggest it is highly unlikely that either of them win the award. And since I don't want to waste your time, I won't be discussing them here (though personally, I believe Pedri deserves better odds of winning the award than he has been given).